The Trump Victory: Voter Revenge

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In my last post, I discussed why Trump voters are more enthusiastic and will show up more often  to vote for him. This will definitely help Trump, but there is something bigger going on behind the scenes. I think the Democratic base will enact revenge against the Democrats.

Now, I don’t mean in the sense that Trump is the giant middle finger to the establishment. What I’m talking is the base getting even within their own party. Essentially, the Democratic voters are going to get even with the Democratic base. One both sides of the political spectrum, no one really talks about about voting just to get even. The left thinks all the people on the left will show up and vote left. The right thinks all the people on the right will come out and vote for the right. This is the working assumption. But what happens if one side comes out to vote for the other guy? That could be enough to swing elections. Although independents win elections, I don’t think it matters if your own base doesn’t come out and vote for you.

Sean Malstrom talks about this from the Republican side:

In 2006, the House of Representatives becomes Democrat controlled. Did this occur because districts suddenly became liberal? No. This was the Republican base expressing anger at being betrayed by the Bush administration and the Republican House who did Bush’s dirty work. 2006 saw conservative districts putting in Democrats. Many times, Republicans will vote in a Democrat just to get rid of a Republican who is betraying them.

This revenge has happened more often on the Republican side due to the Bushes. Immigration has been a big issue for the Republicans, but they never seem to go through with it. In the end, they kick out republicans.

Could this be happening in the Democratic camp? Check out this article

I’m a Democrat,” Saunders, who worked for many prominent national Democrats over his career, says in the interview video. “I believe in the two founding principles of Jacksonian Democracy, social justice and economic fairness. Right now, I think that the Democratic Party—my great party—has got away from some of this.”

These people are all about spiting Clinton. Need more? Here is more outrage during the Democratic National Convention

http://www.dangerandplay.com/2016/09/14/mike-cernovich-documentary-unconvention-dnc-rnc/

There is clear anger at the Democratic establishment. People didn’t like the super delegates. When they found out about the DNC colluding with Clinton. they became furious. So what do voters do when they get angry. They get even. What you are going to see is a ton of the Bernie voters will vote Trump. They may not really like Trump, but they are getting even with Clinton and her DNC goons. You can see this in the polls. The polls over sample democrats or blocks that are likely to vote for Hillary, but even with obviously poor samples, you are seeing the race be pretty close. A lot of polls only put  Clinton a few points ahead. If the favorable polls aren’t helping Clinton much, there are likely a lot of Democrats who will secretly vote for Trump.

Also, with all of the media blitz against Trump, people will look at you funny if you say you are voting for Trump. If you’re a liberal, you will likely be ostracized by your liberal friends. So I wouldn’t doubt there are still some Democrats who are saying they will vote Hillary, but then change at the last minute.

I think it’s very likely for Trump to win thanks to revenge voters. Democrats haven’t experienced voter revenge much. While the right has the RINOs (Republican in name only), the Democrats usually don’t have that. That’s why Obama still has a 50 percent approval rate despite having very disastrous policies. But the obvious corruption is the straw that broke the camel’s back; it will be why the Democrats will come out in record numbers for a Republican.

Keep in mind Trump and Bernie were both anti-establishment candidates. If the anti-establish Bernie voters didn’t get Bernie, why would they vote for establishment Clinton? The fact is they won’t. I think the media and political establishment will be very surprised when they find out that they lost and Democrat voters were a big reason why.

Want more? Follow me on Twitter at @Spoogymoney. If you want to here about video games, go to Sourcegaming.info

Missed Opprotunity: Nintendo Switch Holiday Mall Tour

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Nintendo announced they will be unveiling their games and the price of the system on January 12, 2017. Here’s the link.

Now, I will say I’m not a big fan of this move. You buy systems for games, so not showing off the games is the same as showing off the system. Moreover, if the system launches in early March, it’s not a lot of time to build interest and show off the system. Of course, it’s a moot point now.

I think what’s more interesting is that Nintendo missed a huge opportunity to promote their system: a holiday mall tour.  

Nintendo is launching this system at a unique time. Most consoles launch at the end of the year in order to get the system out before Christmas. Nintendo, however, is releasing their system in March and are skipping the holidays all together. Perhaps it’s not a great idea, but it opens up this unique opportunity.

Nintendo, like with the Wii and Wii U will be demoing the system after the presentation in January. But consider if they demoed the system during the holiday rush instead. Malls will be the busiest during the holidays. You have a prime time to show millions of people this new system as they shop for Christmas gifts. The amount of attention Nintendo would be able to attract would be astronomical. It would also help address the fact Nintendo is releasing the system at a slower time of the year (though everything is slow compared to the last three months of the year).

Nintendo could have even use this to show off other products. Why not show off the NES Mini, which I’m sure is going to be a huge holiday item. Maybe show off Super Mario Run or Pokemon Sun and Moon. Unlike the Nintendo Switch, Nintendo is selling these products during the holidays. Essentially, they kill two birds with one stone.

Of course, one thing I’m not considering this is if the malls would allow this (as it can take up quite a lot of store space) or if it could be cost effective (malls may charge more to do this during their busiest time of the year). Nintendo may have considered it, but we’ll never know. Nevertheless, it would have been a great opportunity.

If you want more, follow me on Twitter @Spoogymonkey. Also check out Sourcegaming.info as well. 

Nintendo Thinks Long-Term

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Nintendo is planning to ship 2 million Switch by March 30, 2016. Here is a reporter from the Wall Street Journal.

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His thinking isn’t out of the box. But you, good reader, do think outside the box. It’s why you are here.

First, the answer is obvious that Nintendo doesn’t take a huge risk by overproducing Nintendo Switch and no one buys them. This is a new brand for Nintendo, and it could be unsuccessful. We won’t know till its out. Nintendo isn’t going to make tens of millions of these thing only to have the system flops leaving  too many systems in the pipeline. Obsolete inventory is one of the worst problems you can have as a business, which is why companies try to minimize it and lenders keep an eye on it. Sega had the same problem with the Dreamcast, so it’s not an outlandish proposition. Better safe than sorry.

Second, a shortage makes the system seem successful. Let’s say Nintendo shipped 5 million and only 4.8 million sold. That’s good, but there are systems left over. To the public, it will seem like it did OK. Now, let’s say there are only 2 million and ALL of them sell out with customers hungry to get their hands on it. Now the system seems like a huge success. See, people don’t read financial and sales reports. They only know if something is successful by whether it’s on the shelve or not. If Nintendo Switch is sitting on the shelve and collecting dust, it’s a flop. But if they fly off the shelves, it’s a success. They get to say to customers “We are so sorry. Please understand, we didn’t think this will be as big of a success. We’ll make more. We promise.” That’s much better than going to investors and saying “Please forgive us. We made too many Nintendo Switch and we can’t sell them.”

Nintendo may also be using this initial system to create the first generation consumers. They will be the more dedicated Nintendo fans who will buy into the system, love it, and create buzz about the system. Word of mouth is still the most powerful form of advertising. Nintendo may be using them and their enthusiasm to gauge future production.

In the video game industry, you have to think long term. Nintendo is not looking at this Q4 2016. They are looking at the 24 quarters thereafter. Their earnings will be based on the next 6 years. Nintendo’s bad earnings today are due to the mistakes made with the Wii U and the 3DS. If the Switch is successful, they will ride the success for another 5 to 6 years, and that’s what they want.

To illustrate this, here is Nintendo’s Net Income ratio (Operating ratio divided by Sales). Here is this Generation (you can find the data here)

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NI Ratio(%) 7.7 -6.7 1.1 -4.1 7.6

Now here is the Wii Generation

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NI Ratio(%) 19.3 18.0 15.4 15.2 15.9

See the difference. Note that the Great Recession happened in 2008. While the ratio declined, it was still far higher than anytime in the last 5 years. Nintendo knows that if this thing flops, they are stuck with poor earnings for another 5 years. This is what Nintendo is trying to avoid. This is why Nintendo isn’t aggressive with Nintendo Switch productions.

Nintendo isn’t going to flood the pipeline. They are being conservative, which is good. It’s how they’ve stayed in business for so long. Moreover, if the system creates a lot of buzz early on (through a shortage or the first generation buyers), then the system can improve demand and have a profitable next 5 or 6 years. Nintendo is finally getting out of the Generation 8 slump. Nintendo’s earnings today are a result of that. 2016 will have bad results, and there isn’t much the company can do about it. They are right to prepare for a great 2017 and make sure the next years are profitable.

This is why Nintendo is the business and the analyst are, well, the analyst.

Want more boring video game sales data? Follow me at @Spoogymonkey. You can also find more of me at SourceGaming.info

The Trump Victory: Enthusiam Gap

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There has been plenty of talk about voter fraud, and there have been some reported instances in Texas. It’s a big issue, for sure, but I’m not that concerned about it. That’s because I’m confident it won’t be enough and that Trump will win by a landslide. In this article (and the next), I will explain the two major factors as to why a Trump presidency is inevitable.

The Enthusiasm Gap

The basket of deplorables knows this point quite well, and although Antithesis Analysis is not about saying what everyone knows or thinks, it’s important that we still discuss it.

So consider you are talking to someone who is not a “deplorable” pepe meming Trump supporter. If you ask them who they think will win, they might say Hillary Clinton. Why? Because she’s up in the polls. Now, I’m sure you want to point out that those polls are false or one of the Podesta Emails that points out that the polls are rigged. You can do the same thing just as easily. Point to the fact.

Rallies

Trump has one or two rallies a day. His rallies will have 10,000 to 20,000 attendance at each. Clinton does one about every two weeks and has maybe 100 people. From the GatewayPundit

Through August 25th, Trump has held 29 campaign events in August with an estimated 168,000 participants.  Clinton on the other hand has held only 11 campaign events attended by an estimated paltry 10,000.

Trump averages 5,800 people per event in August while Clinton averages less than 1,000.

From rt.com

Donald Trump’s rally in Baton Rouge, Louisiana drew over 10,000 people on Thursday, reportedly breaking an attendance record at the Baton Rouge River Center set by musician Elton John.

People are willing to go out and see Trump. They don’t want to go out and see Clinton.

Social Media

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Trump has 11.7 million likes

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Clinton has 7.5 million. This means that for every 2 Clinton likes, there are 3 Trump likes. The top topic on Hillary’s page has 5.5 thousand likes. Trump has 84 thousands.

 

Twitter_Trump.pngTrump has 12.7 million Twitter followers

Twitter_Clinton.png

Hillary has 9.9 million followers. Like Facebook, its 3 to 2. Again, Trump has more retweets and likes than Clinton does.

I don’t think think I need to discuss the Reddit. Its a little sad honestly.

Books

Hillary Clinton’s book is a complete flop. From the Washington Post

Do you own a hard copy of Hillary Clinton’s book Hard Choices? If so, you’re in exclusive company. According to data provided to the Post by Nielsen BookScan, a little over 26,000 more copies of the book were sold in its third week — down almost 46 percent from the week prior, which was down 44 percent from the week before that.

Trump’s books sold well before he entered the political ring. A good comparison is MAGA Mindset, which (at least according to its author) has outpaced Hillary’s book. At a bear minimum, we can say Hillary isn’t pulling people in with her writing skills.

Why does this matter

As someone more clever than me said, If no one goes to her rallies, no one follows her on social media, and no one buys her book, are they really going to vote for her come Novermber?

What this tells us is that, in truth, the polls are wrong. If the polls were so accurate, why is reality not matching the polls? If the polls were accurate, she would have people at her rallies. She would be able to sell books. She would would have a Reddit that’s not a joke. The truth is what everyone know: No one really cares about Hillary Clinton. And if no one cares, no one votes.

One of the biggest weaknesses Clinton has is she is only an alternative to Trump. The ballot would be more accurate to say “Trump: Yes or No?” The same thing happened in 2008. McCain was just an alternative to Obama. The end result is no one really voted for McCain. The only reason they have to go out to the polls, deal with traffic, wait in line just to check a box and have to wake up at 6 AM tomorrow morning. The reality is they won’t. Something will come up. Something will happen that stops them. Trump supporters, on the other hand, will go out to vote even if Satan himself is stopping them. They will be at the polls in full force. Clinton voters will stay home. This is how Trump wins.

To finish, I leave you with Mike Cernovich

Cernovich: You’re voting for Hillary, right?

Her: Yes.

Cerno: Are you excited about this?

Her: [Pause]…not really.

Cernovich: Now imagine it’s election day. You wake up. Your car won’t start. Maybe you got in a fight with your boyfriend. Maybe you had a bad day at work. Do you stop what you are doing to go to the polls to vote for Hillary?

Her: I really don’t care that much who wins.

Want more crazy, out there opinions and ideas? Make sure to follow me at @Spoogymonkey. You can also get more of my stuff on Sourcegaming.info

Internet’s Thoughts on Nintendo Switch

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Nintendo finally announced the Switch. It looks like the company is making a big SWITCH with this system……no?

Bad puns aside, I have not heard any compelling answers to what the Switch is. Our friends, the analyst, seem to be mum on it. Why? This is clearly a big switch for Nintendo. I don’t think investors get it either. Nintendo’s stock fell 6 percent after the announcement.

I will explain the Nintendo Switch here and on Source Gaming in the coming days, but I want to point out some of the things I’ve heard from folks talking about the Nintendo Switch

Each Nintendo system sold less than the previous

I’ve heard this one quite a bit, so I think it may be a point of interest (or a sore spot), for Nintendo fans. Yes, it is true. With the exception of the Wii, each console has sold less than the previous. If you just look at this, you’d assume that demand for Nintendo is declining. Nintendo’s handhelds follow a similar trend. Nevertheless, their handhelds still do well. Despite a very poor start and Nintendo having to cut the price, the 3DS has still sold about 60 million. The PS4 has only sold 42 million.  I think fans are aware this is a good move.

The Handheld Market is Dying

You can see above. The 3DS sold 60 million units during the great recessions. As I mentioned in a previous post, the market has contracted. If the handheld market is dying, then by the same vein, so is the console market (as the 3DS has outsold the PS4). Everyone seems to think that mobile eroded the 3DS, but the 3DS’s problem was its games. It took the same strategy as the Wii U. Use the DS’s brands to push an idea Nintendo wanted to do (in this case, 3D). The 3DS began to recover when the price fell and better games came out. I’ll talk more about this point in the future, but there is weird assumption that everything is mutually exclusive, but it isn’t.

Nintendo Struggled With Two Consoles

This was something I mentioned in The NX Will Have How Many Games!? That Nintendo had problems creating pipelines for two systems. This has been made worse with how long it takes to make games now. A few people have pointed out this struggle, so good on them.

The Nintendo Switch is trying to be the “Second Console”

This one came from a contemporary at Source Gaming. As you can expect, I disagree. No one makes their console with being second place in mind. They make it to sell as many units as possible. I think this thought comes from the idea that the Nintendo Switch because its not a normal console. The same thing was said about the Wii, yet it outsold the PS3 and XBox 360. Being the “second console,” means very little.

There is more to say about the Nintendo Switch, but I will save that for another day. Check here and on Sourcegaming.info for more.

Sony is a Video Game Company Now

PS4.jpgWhen I was a kid, Sony was a electronics powerhouse. There was a time when Walkmen were all the rage. Where Sony made the best stereos and TVs. Sony dominated consumer electronics. That image of Sony has faded. No longer are considered the electronics jugernauts they were when the Playstation hit the market. Now, after numerous years of struggles and financial losses, they are a shadow of their former selves. They are no longer a consumer electronics company, but a simple video game company.

Check out this article

Just a few months ago, we were looking at Sony’s end-of-fiscal-year financial reports and worrying about the consumer electronics giant’s $10+ billion in losses over the past eight years. Today, things are looking a bit rosier, as Sony is riding strong sales of the PlayStation 4 and its associated games and services to an increase in profitability for the quarter ending in June.

Sony declined eight years ago at the beginning of the 7th Generation. This was also around when Sony launched the PS3, a 600 dollar system which became a money pit. Sony sold the system at a loss and, due to weak sales, had to cut the price of the system. This was also a time when Sony’s other divisions were struggling. The company has been in the red for years until only recently.

As time went on, the company survived by downsizing and closing down facilities. Over the eyars, numerous companies have swooped in and co-opted their once powerful brand. Nintendo squashed their handheld endeavors. Samsung beat them with TVs. The rise of iPods, and eventually the iPhone, killed their music business which was the heart and soul of Sony. Sony is a zombie of a company.

The reason Sony is a game company is because their earnings are now tied to video games. Sony struggled when the PS3 was losing them money hand over fist. According to PC world, producing the PS3 cost over 800 dollars. They are doing better now because the PS4 has dominated the market and the PS3 continues to sell into Gen 8 (with a better profit margin than in Gen 8 as well). Here is the company’s Net Income (attributed to Sony shareholders) over the last 10 years.

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The decline in 2008 is mostly due to Great Recession, but Sony has been trying to stay above for a while. This may be a direct result of the PS3 as noted above.  Sony didn’t return to profitability until after the launch of the PS4 (although it lagged about a year). If VR or the PS4 Neo do poorly, the company could drop into the red again.

Of course, I’m not the only one seeing Sony’s shift. Verge did an article on just this topic:

But the long-term reality is far more stark: after years of promising “One Sony,” CEO Kaz Hirai appears to be systematically breaking the company up for sale. The VAIO PC division was sold last year and just announced its first hybrid laptops as an independent company, and Hirai told investors that he has to consider spinning off the smartphone business and possibly selling the TV business outright.

According to Hirai, that leaves Sony with three main businesses at its core :

 

  • Sony Pictures Entertainment, the hit-or-miss Hollywood studio that just fired Amy Pascal after being hacked to bits at the end of last year.
  • The PlayStation division, which has so far won the next-gen console race with the PS4 but yet to define a clear mobile strategy; PlayStation Mobile is all but ignored, and the Vita is a beautifully noble failure.
  • Selling image sensors to Apple for the iPhone.

You read that last one correctly: Sony’s last closely held core electronics business is image sensors, and it’s mostly because Apple uses them in the iPhone. (Sony also supplies sensors for various other high-end phones, but Samsung uses its own chips in the Galaxy S5, and no other company comes close to selling as many phones as Apple and Samsung.) If Apple decides to switch sensor suppliers — or, perhaps more likely, build its own — the third leg of that stool gets kicked right out.

To add on the last part, it’s generally a bad idea to have a line be sold to one company. In lending, its a huge risk if you borrower is reliant on one company, say a Walmart or Target, because if they drop you, you are out of business. Sony is in the same boat. It seems like the only stable business Sony has left is their Playstation line.

The change has to be somewhat demoralizing to investors. When you invested in Sony, you expected to be buying into an electronics conglomerate, but now they are a videogame company. It would be Target turning into a grocery store. Investors are watching the company on the decline.

If you want to know the future of Sony, look at the Playstation brand. The success of Playstation is the success of Sony. Of course, if the Playstation brand ever dies, so does Sony.
Follow me on Twitter at @Spoogymonkey or email be at Smashmonkey88@gmail.com.  You can find more of my stuff on Sourcegaming.info

You’re Not Smart As You Think You Are

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As you go through life, you learn truths. Life is humbling, and one of the best truths I’ve learned is that if you think you’re smart, you’re really not.

So, I started my post high-school education at a local community college. It was cheaper and the classes were smaller. It was a better transition, but the classes weren’t that hard. I could put a little bit of work and get a B, maybe an A.

So after two years, I move on to the University of South Florida and apply for the School of Accountancy. Now, you had to pass the first class, Intermediate Financial Accounting 1, in order to take any of the other classes. They warned us this class was hard, but I didn’t pay much heed. I was smart. I was a genius. With a little bit of study, I’d get a B, maybe an A.

First test I get a C. Next test, I get a D. I was close to failing the class and having to take it over again.

What I learned was I was not as smart as I thought I was. Any time you think your a genius, as I thought, the world will find a way to bring you back into reality. I thought I was so smart because I could pass freshmen and sophomore level classes at a community college. But when I got to the big league, I thought I was smart enough that I didn’t have to study a lot. I did well in my other college classes. But accounting was different.

Socrates, the man the oracles called the smartest man in Greece, said “I know that I know nothing.” True genius comes from not knowing. It comes from knowing your limits. If you think you’re smart, you’ll never really be smart. I know a guy who always gloated about how smart he was and how much he knew. But in reality, he knew nothing. He could regurgitate facts, but you could tell he didn’t really know much. He wasn’t really smart because he thought he was smart.

To really get it, to really be smart, is learning your own limitations. I passed Intermediate Financial Accounting 1 because I knew I didn’t know accounting. I had to study hard. I got an 88 on the last test and passed with a C. That class forever shaped my understanding of intelligence. I only became smart because I learned that I knew nothing.

If you want to achieve true intelligence, you must realize that you aren’t as smart as you think you are.

 

Trump Disrupted The Election

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Trump made a big play at the first presidential debates. I you were to judge the “debate,” then Hillary would have won and she would have gotten a nice little high school debate trophy. But look at the polls. Most of them have Trump winning the debate. By normal means, Trump lost the debate, but Trump is redefining the rules of the debate as well as the elections. He is a disruptive candidate.

Disruptive Innovation

What is disruptive innovation. Clayton Christensen, who came up with the concept, says “Disruptive innovation……..describes a process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors.” This describes Trump’s rise. He started out with the disenfranchised Republicans. He wasn’t another politician. He didn’t play nice. He branded his opponents. He spoke about issues that no one else was, such as immigration. Sean Malstrom, who was the expert on disruptive innovation in regards to videogames, said “Disruption is, as Christensen puts it, a ‘crappy product for crappy people’. Or to use another word that Clinton suggested, a deplorable product for deplorable people.”

 

The change in Trump’s attitude is now in independents and Bernie democrats. He hasn’t dropped any of his policies, but he’s changed the presentation. At the Republican debates, he was “strumping” the competition. Now, we’s more polish. More in control, as he attracts other voters. He’s moving up stream to these voters. This is also why he was (or has been) down in the polls. Usually companies that are being disrupted wont notice it until its too late.

Trump Is an Alpha

If you watch the debates, Hillary was calm, collective and quite. Trump was vocal. He would often interrupt Clinton and would say she was wrong. Hillary gave candid politician answers while Trump gave, well, Trump answers. While Hillary may seem more “composed,” Trump seems more genuine. He felt like a human being rather than a prerecorded android. The “debate format” is two boring people saying “I disagree”, and “I disagree” in a monotonous back and forth. Trump’s interrupting felt like an ACTUAL debate. He was controlling the conversation. Even when Hillary said something he didn’t like, he would say “You’re wrong.” He never took a comment lying down like most republican candidates do. I think this is a big reason people thought he won. Hillary probably had better answers, but no one thinks they’re genuine. They sounds fake and, in turn, they see her as fake.

You have to make this something people are going to want to watch. Trump brings a bit more fire and reality to a dull and dry debate. You want people to watch the debate because it brings more eyeballs to you. And if you can sell them on your ideas, then you get the votes. Hillary seems to think of it like a political campaign. She thinks if she has the best answers, seems calm, and has the best sound bites, she wins. She thinks getting the media brownie points is how she wins the election, but its not working out how she wants it. Perhaps this is why we have a video of her screeching “Why am I not 50 points ahead?”  Hillary doesn’t know how to draw people (voters), yet Trump has pulling people to his brand for years..

People say Trump is a “Loose cannon” but he’s turning that attitude into an asset during this debate. He seems strong. In control. He looks like an Alpha.  Not willing to back down. Hillary being collected is seem as a weakness. It makes everything she says feel fake. It makes her always defensive. It doesn’t make her feel like a human being. This attitude “technically” wins debates, but it doesn’t win elections. She looks like a goody two shoes, but not a president. Trump got people to watch, got people to hear his message, and got them interested in Trump.

Bad Experience

albatross

The real killing blow was he turned Hillary’s strength into her weakness, her experience.

I heard a lot of people on social media saying “Trump should say this,” or “Trump should have brought up this.” But I think they didn’t see what he was actually doing. Think about this: what were Trump’s big stumpings? They were all based on her experience.

  • Her husband approved NAFTA and she will approve the TPP
  • The Democrats have run the inner cities for 50 years
  • Hillary created ISIS
  • She has been a senator for years and hasn’t done what she says she will do.

Besides the e-mail thing (which Trump always brings up) every attack he made on Hillary was always about her experience. He often spoke about how long she has been a politician and used that as a criticism. He summed it up with this golden line “The world — let me tell you. Let me tell you. Hillary has experience, but it’s bad experience. We have made so many bad deals during the last — so she’s got experience, that I agree.”

This is too good. Hillary’s advantage was her political experience and that is Trump’s weakness. Trump has turned it on her. Her experience is no longer a strength but an albatross around her neck. Disruption is business judo. You use your opponent’s strengths against them. Hillary’s experience, onces a strength, is now her greatest weakness. Trump’s inexperience, once a weakness, is now his greatest asset. You can’t blame him for the follies of the government. While the media pundits try to pin Trump supporting the Iraq war, Hillary Clinton actually voted for it.

A lot of people said “Oh, he should have talked about immigration,” but that wasn’t part of his plan. He was bringing up every failure she’s ever had. He was highlighting every time she messed up, and he slammed Hillary with his damning thesis “Hillary has bad experience.” This is a major blow to her campaign. She has touted it as her right to the presidential seat, but now it will only come off as a negative. Beyond this, she doesn’t have much else. She’s spent so much time on that and “Trump is a big fat orange meanie” that she doesn’t have an identity. Trump is “the wall”. He’s “jobs.” He’s “Fixing trade” and “X is ripping us off.” You know what Trump wants. But what does Hillary want? Probably just to be president because its “Her Turn.” She has nothing.

The election is already over. Unless something major happens or the elite just steal the election, its Trump’s. What is more interesting is what will happen next election. I expect the Democrats (if the party survives the scandals) will try and co-opt Trump. They will bring in someone who is “From the outside” and “Is firery.” Unfortunately, Democrats are very bad about getting people who aren’t senators (the only non-political people this race were all on the Republican side: Trump, Carson and Florina). This guy will instead seem psycho and incompetent. He’ll be the actual clown that the Democrats think Trump is.

The Democrats have been disrupted. They won’t be able to win like they have in the past. If there is one thing true in this world, its that you “Can’t Stump the Trump.”

 

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Market Is Not Big Enough For 3 Consoles

standoff

The analyst have done a relatively poor job trying of trying to understand the Great Recession and its impact on video games. In fact, a lot of people in the game industry thought that games were recession proof, mainly based on short term data. However, the recession has had a significant impact on games, which was most notable in generation 8.

Here are the sales for Gen 7 (2009).

gen7_sales

Here is Gen 8 (2015)

gen8

And yes, I know this is VGChartz, but it’s good enough for this discussion. As you can see, there has been a significant decline in both hardware and software sales. Hardware sales are down about 40 million (49 percent) and software sales down another 113 million (20 percent). However, this amount also includes another 2.2 million in hardware sales from the PS3 and XBox 360 and another 161.8 million from other Gen 7 software.

The point is that the market of Generation 8 is not healthy. The new machines are not selling as well and are not selling as many games. Games journalist and analyst are praising the PS4, but they don’t see that the growth in sales is due to cannibalization, not due to new growth. They see a lot of trees, but no forest. Nintendo and Microsoft lose has been Sony’s gain as both the Wii U and XBox One have had issue. For Sony, Gen 8 is amazing, but the other consoles struggle significantly. Contrast this to Generation 7. Even the poor selling consoles (like a certain Sony machine) did well in terms of total units sold (profitability is another story). But now, the poor selling consoles are in dire straights. They can’t compete. Sony’s growth has been from Microsoft and Nintendo’s customers. Although I don’t have any data, I’m sure that this generation, consumers are not buying more than one console. Most of my friends who have gaming consoles have one, and it’s usually the PS4.

So here is the problem no one is looking at. If hardware and software sales are so poor, how is the market going to support 3 major consoles, let alone 5. In the handheld space, this has already happened. The PSP did alright in Generation 7, but its sunk in Generation 8. While numerous critics and pundits ridicule Nintendo with the Wii U, the PSP Vita hasn’t done much better. Now, Nintendo has a monopoly on handheld systems. The XBox One and the Wii U are not doing so hot. The only system doing well is the console space is the PS4. Already, the market is contracting.

The problem is the economy of the world is stagnating. Japan has been stagnant for years, but the US, the largest market for videogames, has entered stagnation. The US only increased 1.2 percent the last quarter. From the Wall Street Journal:

Economic growth is now tracking at a 1% rate in 2016—the weakest start to a year since 2011—when combined with a downwardly revised reading for the first quarter. That makes for an annual average rate of 2.1% growth since the end of the recession, the weakest pace of any expansion since at least 1949.

Here is the world economy. Note the dip in 2009 and the flat line after 2010.

world_gpa

It’s clear the economy isn’t doing well. The global economy is stagnant, and it likely won’t get better anytime soon. The games industry has never experienced a downturn this bad for this long. In many ways, the companies have gotten comfortable with the good times, yet now the tables have turned. Being in the console market will become more risky as it becomes harder and harder to sell a $400 system. Microsoft is already showing that they are ready to get out. Will they be the only one? I’ll just say that we’ll see the market players switch dramatically over the next few years.

What is Antithesis Analysis

There is one thing I’ve learned about myself since I started writing on video games over a year ago: I’m a natural contrarian.

For whatever reason, I don’t fall into the conventional wisdom that most do. There are too many talking heads in the gaming industry and elsewhere that say the same tired line. This blog isn’t that; its about looking at the industry in a different way.

What you’ll find here is a different perspective. You wont find the same tired talking point, The conventional wisdom. Here, you’ll get something a bit different. Will it be a bit out there? Perhaps, but what is life if everyone parrots the same views. The same opinion.

This blog is dedicated to looking at things through a different lens. Because sometimes asking different questions leads us to the answer. I hope you all enjoy this. I’ll try and keep this updated regularly.

If you want to contact me you can e-mail me at Smashmonkey88@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter at @Spoogymonkey